The Road to Mobile World Congress

Mobile World Congress 2013 promises to be bigger and better than ever. The new venue will attract even more members of the mobile industry to Barcelona this year to celebrate the industry’s success and catch a glimpse of its potential future. The recently released Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) indicates that this will be a rosy future indeed. The study predicts that global mobile data traffic will increase 13-fold from 2012 to 2017, reaching 11.2 exabytes per month. But the numbers don’t tell the whole story. 

Once again, all of the players in the mobile industry ecosystem are convening in one spot, promising excellent insights into the challenges, opportunities, and potential future of the mobile industry. I will be meeting with customers, analysts, and partners throughout the show, and, of course, wearing out my shoes walking the floor.

Here are some of the key themes and pressing questions that I expect to see, hear, and explore:

·         Next-Generation LTE—What is the status of LTE deployment?  What has been the record of success?  How has LTE changed the mobile world? Where to next for LTE? Is there life beyond LTE?

·         M2M—The Internet of Everything and pervasive, fast, mobile connectivity are finally creating a real market for machine-to-machine mobile communications.  What are those applications?  What are the new business models?

·         The Great Indoors—Many countries now have pretty good outdoor mobile coverage. But how do we extend that coverage indoors?  Especially given that new devices and applications are creating more “nomadic,” rather than mobile, usage patterns amongst users.

·         Wi-Fi—Wi-Fi really came out of the hidden corners at last year’s show to be on the agenda of every mobile operator. I think that this will be the year of Wi-Fi monetization. How do I make money from Wi-Fi? (Look for my blog during the week of MWC where I will share my thoughts on the answer to this question).

·         Small Cells—Small Cells and Wi-Fi are fraternal twins. They both provide excellent wireless access with their own unique attributes. How will licensed small cells and Wi-Fi coexist and complement each other? What are the new business models for small cells? Check out some of the insights from me and my fellow Big Thinkers in Small Cells.

·         Enterprise Mobility—Workers can now readily access email, calendars, and business information from anywhere. However, research by Cisco IBSG reveals that mobile business users expect much more. And enterprises are trying to understand how they can really use mobility to transform their businesses and their industries. What is the future for Enterprise Mobility? Who will be the big winners?

·         Big Data—The growing conventional wisdom is that mobile operators will need to learn how to carefully mine and analyze, and act upon, their terabytes of meaningful customer and network data to make their business more profitable. I will be looking for interesting startups in this space and case studies of operators who are really executing on this.

Of course, I can’t wait to get my hands on all of those sexy, new mobile devices that will be everywhere.  It will be interesting to witness how the Apple versus Samsung battle is evolving.  Do the interesting new devices from Nokia and Blackberry have any chance of challenging this battle of titans?  No doubt, the relationship between the over-the-top services (OTTs) and the mobile operators will be the topic of heated discussions. As will the topic of spectrum.

There is definitely a lot to look forward to and a lot to learn from this year’s Mobile World Congress. As in previous years, I will blog about the highlights and my key takeaways following the show. 
Please stop by to say hello and see some really cool things at the Cisco both, located at 3C54.

Also posted on cisco.com

May I Borrow A Cup of Wi-Fi?

When was the last time a guest in your home asked if he or she could “borrow” your home network to connect his or her smartphone, tablet, laptop, or other new mobile device to the Internet? Most likely: today. 

U.S. consumers carry an average of 2.6 mobile devices, according to recent research by the Cisco® Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG). Not only do they expect their devices to connect to the Internet—they also expect their friends and neighbors to have home Wi-Fi, just as they have electricity and running water.

The value of “community Wi-Fi” is being recognized by a number of organizations. One is Fon, who has created a shared open-source network of more than 7 million hotspots around the world that community members can use for free. Another is BT, who has incorporated the Fon application and model into its home broadband service. This approach enables BT to provide broadband customers free access to the global Fon network, while expanding its U.K. hotspot network to more than 4 million sites—so, now friends and family members who are also BT customers can seamlessly authenticate and join the host’s home network.

To learn more about the value of community Wi-Fi and the business benefits to SPs, Cisco IBSG conducted a survey of 1,060 Canadian mobile users to understand their needs and behaviors, their current and future mobile usage, and the average profile of community Wi-Fi users. The study revealed that approximately 40 percent of mobile device owners are “community” users. Compared with other mobile users, community users are technically advanced, own more sophisticated devices, and use these devices up to twice as often as do average mobile users. The community segment is also significant to SPs: this group is younger, wealthier, and willing to spend more money on mobile services.

These and other research findings from the survey can help SPs understand the size of the opportunity, develop strategies for success, acquire new customers and retain existing ones, and differentiate their community Wi-Fi offerings and initiatives from those of their competitors, extracting a premium for their service.  

Download the Paper

Observations from the 2013 Consumer Electronics Show

I am just back from attending the 2013 Consumer Electronics show in Las Vegas where I  was meeting with customers and visiting the massive show floor. CES is an intriguing blend of extremes and contrasts: biggest and the smallest; connected and unconnected; wired and wireless; high tech – low tech.  As personal and business technologies converge through the “consumerization of technology”, CES provides an exciting window into the current and future world of technology. 

The following are my personal observations and extrapolations from the show based on my conversations with customers, colleagues and walking the floor. 

1. New Next Generation TV Again – You could be mistaken for thinking that CES is really the TV show.  Televisions are everywhere and every company seems to produce one.  Manufacturers are still selling 3D television, but it has taken a back seat to the next big thing - bigger and thinner new OLED sets and specular ultra-high definition screens. 

2. Connected Home – CE companies continue to try to connect all of our home devices.  But now appliances are getting in on the act.  There were lots of examples of connected refrigerators and washing machines.  Now you can even control how your clothes are washed from the comfort of your couch with your smartphone or even on your TV.

3. Content Sharing and Mirroring – At last, we seem to be making some inroads into sharing content across devices.  Samsung, and others have developed much simpler ways to “mirror” content from a smartphone on to a TV, or getting photos from a digital camera to a smartphone, TV and computer.

4. We Love Apps – It now seems that ever device worth its salt comes has pre-configured and integrated popular applications.  You can now listen to Pandora through your fridge, update your Facebook on the washing machine, and of course, watch Netflix on your TV.

5. Home Energy and Security Management – Finally one can readily, and reasonably inexpensively, remotely control your home heating, open and close doors and monitor security cameras from your smartphone without engaging an engineering firm.  Not only are manufactures promoting the cool and connected factor but they are selling cost savings.

6. Mobile and Wireless – Of course everything is mobile or wireless, either connected to mobile or Wi-Fi networks. 

7. Health and Fitness – There are now some very interested, usable and well-designed devices to track and promote fitness (e.g., heart rate, running/cycling route), in addition to specific devices to monitor and improve our overall health (e.g., blood sugar and pressure)

8. Connected Car – At times I thought that I was at the auto show.  The car has become the new “connected home.”  Many of the car companies (e.g., Ford, Audi, Chrysler) had booths, with lots of sleek and cool cars, showing off all of the great electronics in their vehicles and demonstrating how you are no longer off-line when you are behind the wheel.

9. Personal Data – Whether you are monitoring your heart beat, the temperature in your home, or the contents of your refrigerator, all of these new devices seem to be generating and storing huge amounts of personal data that can be analyzed to your heart’s content.

10. Digital Photography – All of the big camera manufacturers (e.g., Canon, Nikon) were out in force trying to demonstrate why real photographers use real cameras rather than rely on smartphones.  They were showcasing smart lenses, Wi-Fi connected cameras and new and easier to use devices.  Polaroid, the onetime leader in photographic innovation, was even demonstrating an updated digital version of its iconic instant print camera.

11. Audio Renaissance – It finally seems to be recognized that to truly enjoy music you might need a better listening device more than ubiquitous ear buds.  There were lots of updated versions of 70s and 80s style big speakers with massive woofers.  And, every major electronics company was showcasing an impressive portfolio of high quality headphones.

12. Where’s My Computer? – Outside of the registration area, I didn’t see a traditional PC anywhere.  No desktops, servers, or storage units.  While they still exist, everyone wants to really show off their smartphones, tablets, new hybrid tablets or the occasional “sexy” laptop.

The Wi-Fi World Comes to San Francisco

I recently had the honor to speak at the Wi-Fi Global Congress in San Francisco. One thing is certain: Wi-Fi’s importance and industry relevance continues. While not quite the same order of magnitude as the Mobile World Congress, the event attracted 350 people, a tenfold increase over the last time the Wi-Fi Broadband Alliance visited San Francisco. The WBA now has 95 corporate members, reflecting a member base that has doubled over the last 12 months. The membership includes a mix of leading Wi-Fi, mobile, and broadband network operators; global service providers and media players; as well as technology providers and partners. 

I took away five key messages from the conference:

1.    Roaming and Integration Are the Next Big Thing: Everyone is excited by the Next Generation Hotspot (NGH) initiative that allows users to seamlessly roam across Wi-Fi networks locally or around the world. The rollout of NGH will also allow mobile devices to simply roam from the cellular network onto Wi-Fi hotspots using a secure connection.  Recent customer research from Cisco IBSG confirms the pent-up user demand for this capability. Eighty-five percent of people stated that seamless transfer between networks was important to them, and there was an average level of interest of 3.3 out of 5 for Wi-Fi roaming.

2.    Mobile vs. Wi-Fi Is Dead: The question is no longer which is better—mobile or Wi-Fi. The future is now seen as a true marriage between the two access networks. In fact, Korea Telecom talked about how they are creating an “ABC” solution—“always best connection.”  KT, along with other operators, is developing solutions that select the best network for the location, device, and application, and make seamless handoffs between LTE and Wi-Fi. KT remarkably showed how it is currently seamlessly transferring video streaming and file-transfer sessions with customers between its two networks in South Korea.

3.    Small Cells: Smaller licensed cellular and Wi-Fi cells are now seen as fundamental to the next generation of mobile networks to significantly increase mobile capacity to meet explosive customer demand. Unlike macro cells, small cells can also be cost-effectively deployed in homes, businesses, and key public locations to improve coverage, ensuring that mobile devices can always be connected to the Internet. In fact, the 6 million licensed small cells in existence already exceed the total number of macro cells deployed globally.

4.    Monetization—Beyond Offload: As Cisco IBSG identified in “Profiting from the Rise of Wi-Fi,” operators are learning that, while mobile data offload is important, there are lots of other ways to monetize investments in Wi-Fi. MGM explained how it is deploying Wi-Fi throughout all of its extensive Las Vegas properties not only to improve the customer experience, but to drive new value to the bottom line. Location-based services and targeted messaging and coupons to guests’ mobile devices delivers a higher ROI to MGM than it can get from Internet advertising. Similarly, Shaw Communications in Canada described how the extensive public Wi-Fi network it is building helps them differentiate their core TV and broadband services and increase their pricing power. 

 

5.    The Wi-Fi Land Grab: Operators are quickly recognizing that one of the keys to success in building an effective Wi-Fi network is, as in retailing, “location, location, location.” A land grab is going on as companies seek to acquire sites in key areas where people spend their time. Shaw Communications described creative techniques it is using to gain access to these key locations. Shaw’s bag of tricks includes everything from listings on Wi-Fi finders to drive traffic to the retailer; advertising; location-based services; and integrating with its enterprise IT to convince retailers and owners to site Shaw’s access points at their location.

What Do Mobile Business Users Want from Wi-Fi?

Once the exclusive domain of senior executives, mobile devices are now indispensable to most employees for conducting both their business and personal lives. The insatiable demand for smartphones, tablets, and other connected devices is generating staggering amounts of mobile data. In parallel, the use of Wi-Fi for Internet access is exploding as more mobile devices are Wi-Fi enabled, the number of public hotspots expands, and user acceptance grows. Once shunned by corporate IT departments, Wi-Fi has increasingly made its way into most businesses.

 

Business users are the most valuable customer segment for mobile operators. Changes in mobile behavior and usage, particularly with regard to Wi-Fi, could have a significant impact on service providers’ (SPs) bottom line. However, there is little research on how mobile business users are actually using Wi-Fi, how they want to employ it in the future, and, more specifically, what is driving them to connect their devices to the Internet using Wi-Fi.

To learn more, the Cisco® Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG) conducted a survey of 540 U.S. mobile business users to understand their needs and behaviors, current and future mobile usage, and level of interest in Wi-Fi, as well as new forms of monetization.  The study revealed some interesting findings, including home being the most popular location where business users use mobile devices, far surpassing the office or other place of work as a preferred location. Business users own an average of three mobile devices each, one-third more than consumers. And, close to 30 percent of them own a table. Business users prefer Wi-Fi to mobile to connect all of their mobile devices. In fact, more than one-half of business users take advantage of  a public hotspot  weekly to access the Internet.

The research findings are important because they help SPs understand the size of the opportunity, develop strategies for success, and differentiate their Wi-Fi business offerings and initiatives to become more competitive.

Download the paper

Highlights from the Wireless Broadband Conference

I spoke at the Wi-Fi Global Congress this week in San Francisco.  Attached is a short video of my top take-aways from the conference. 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80J6C7YMfFo

The World’s Wi-Fi Laboratory

I recently returned from visiting the world’s Wi-Fi laboratory – the United Kingdom. Everywhere you look in the United Kingdom, there is a sign promoting the availability of Wi-Fi, and my mobile device was constantly identifying a long list of available hotspots. The world’s oldest subway system – affectionately known as The Tube – even allows you to connect to the Internet as you await your train hundreds of feet below historical London. Visitors from around the world at the Summer Olympics were greeted with high-speed Wi-Fi access throughout the Olympic venues, allowing them to enhance their experience with instant access to additional information, videos, and communications through their mobile devices.  

 

Our recent Cisco IBSG research, “What Britons Want from Wi-Fi and Mobile,” reveals that Britain is definitely leading the way in the availability and use of Wi-Fi. Our study confirms that Britons seem to be content with coverage in first-tier locations such as coffee shops, hotels, and restaurants, but are now looking for Wi-Fi to be just as pervasive in other places where they spend their lives. Hospitals, bus stops, retail stores, pubs, and the High Street (or city centers) top the list of additional locations where Britons would like to access Wi-Fi.

The study revealed that mobile devices are now Wi-Fi-enabled “nomadic” devices. Britons own an average of 2.6 mobile devices, almost all of which are Wi-Fi-enabled. Britons spend an average of 2.6 hours per day using their mobile devices in their homes, compared with only 0.6 hours per day in a typical “mobile” on-the-go world.

The Cisco IBSG study also revealed that mobile users are connecting their devices predominantly via Wi-Fi, including over 80 percent of smartphone owners. In fact, on average, smartphone owners use Wi-Fi slightly more than one-third of the time to connect their devices to the Internet. Remarkably, Britons told us that they prefer Wi-Fi to mobile for connecting their mobile devices. They find Wi-Fi superior or equal to mobile connectivity across all attributes, including security and ease of use. Forty-six percent of Britons even find Wi-Fi coverage superior to mobile and an additional 18 percent consider that they provide equal coverage. And, this could change even more in Wi-Fi’s favor, as one-third of British mobile users now use a public hotspot at least weekly. In addition, up to 95 percent of the time, they access that public Wi-Fi for without paying – either for free or as part of their home broadband or mobile subscription.

There is definitely a Wi-Fi “land grab” under way in the United Kingdom today as every major service provider fights to light up the next tier of prime locations with Wi-Fi access points. BT claims more than 4 million hotspots in the United Kingdom, including community access through the FON network for fellow BT home broadband subscribers. In fact, every major home broadband provider in the United Kingdom now offers free access to an extensive public hotspot network as a way to retain customers. The Cisco IBSG research shows that this strategy works.  Over two-thirds of respondents said that free public Wi-Fi was important to them in choosing a broadband provider. 

Equally, most of the major U.K. mobile operators offload some of their data traffic to one of these nearly pervasive Wi-Fi networks to cope with explosive mobile data traffic and to provide an LTE experience, in a market that, until very recently, has not had LTE. Mobile operator O2 has shaken up the market by creating an extensive network of prime public hotspots and making them available for free to customers and non-customers alike.

Given this Wi-Fi laboratory, operators and enterprises are actively experimenting with creating a new world of mobility. SPs are exploring new Wi-Fi monetization models such as wholesale, new features, and value-added managed services. Big U.K. retailers such as food shopping giant Tesco and the John Lewis department store chain are lighting up their stores with hotspots to create a new high-value, mobile-enabled shopping experience for their customers. Even the High Street banks are getting in on the act as they look to add Wi-Fi to their thousands of branches throughout the United Kingdom. Of all the places in the world, Britain may be the first to deliver what we term “New Mobile” – an environment in which Wi-Fi and mobile are seamlessly integrated and indistinguishable in the mobile user’s mind.

So what does the future hold for British mobility? Here are five predictions for key changes in the British mobile industry over the next two years as an outcome of the Cisco IBSG research:

1. Mobile will become one of the primary ways people access entertainment.

Within the next two years:

·         70 percent of mobile users will access social networks.

·         More than 50 percent of mobile users will watch streamed and recorded videos.

·         Up to 50 percent of mobile users will read eBooks.

2. Home will continue to dominate other locations for mobile device usage.

In the next two years, more than 50 percent of all mobile device usage will occur in the home.

3. Devices will also get “out of the house,” with increased usage in public spaces.

In the next two years, 15 percent of all mobile device usage will occur in retail and public

locations.

4. Wi-Fi will become the predominant access technology for smartphones.

Within the next two years:

·         More than 90 percent of smartphones will regularly use Wi-Fi.

·         Smartphone owners will use Wi-Fi almost 50 percent of the time to connect to the Internet.

5. While smartphone penetration will continue to increase, much of the growth of mobile devices will come from nomadic devices.

In the next two years:

·         25 percent of consumers will have eReaders.

·         30 percent will have tablets.

Cisco IBSG conducted an online survey of 1,095 British mobile users. The study was also undertaken in Brazil, Mexico, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Full results of the survey can be downloaded here.