Witnessing the Future of Technology at Mobile World Congress 2016

I have just returned from a very interesting and jammed-packed week at Mobile World Congress 2016 in Barcelona.  For the first time ever, over 100,000 people and 2,200 plus vendors attended this year’s premier technology festival.  Much has changed in the industry over the last year since I reported my observations of MWC 2015.  However, what is most remarkable is how the boundaries of mobility continue to expand and morph – everything now seems to be mobile?  As such, the show offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of technology and the major social and business shifts that we can expect in the next few years. 

The big take-away for me was that the show seems to have returned somewhat to its roots.  While there were still lots of new smartphones, wearables and cars scattered around the show floor, they seemed to be more wallpaper, or in the background.  Much of the buzz and marketing was around new network technologies and the core business of the mobile industry.  The new things were 5G networks, low powered networks, and the new Internet of Things solutions that are going to ride over these new networks. 

The following are my personal observations and extrapolations from the show, based on my conversations with operators, customer meetings, analysts, and colleagues, as well as from simply walking the show floor. 

1. 5G – The Next New Technology —What is a technology show without a shiny new technology?  Despite the fact that only 20 per cent of global subscribers have adopted the previous new technology (4G), and many mobile users are still back on the second generation (2G) technology, we are now entering the fifth generation of mobile technology – 5G.  The remarkable thing though is that no one really knows what 5G is.  There are no agreed up technical standards or industry agreements on the definition of 5G.  And, the best estimates are that we really won’t see 5G becoming a reality until sometime in the middle of the next decade.  However, every major vendor is now “5G ready” and promoting their 5G solutions, and plastering the fact all over their exhibit booths.  Numerous announcements were made on new 5G partnerships and tests.  Verizon is looking to deploy in 2017 and the Japanese, Koreans and Russians have all promised to have 5G networks running in time for the various global sporting events that they are hosting. 
2. From High Power to Low Power Networks – At the other extreme from the futuristic, high-powered 5G networks are LPWA networks – Low Power Wide Area networks.  These networks cover wide areas (up to 30 km and more per base station), require very low power (the batteries of attached devices can last for years), and transmit very low amounts of data at slow speeds.  Many see these networks as an essential platform to realize the Internet of Things revolution.  Everything from water meters to parking meters and agriculture sensors could be hooked up to these networks and essentially forgotten for years.  Sigfox and LoRa are the current leading contenders for these networks, but the GSMA and others are frantically working to release a LTE-based version.  Providers, such as Orange, Proximus and KPN are currently deploying LPWA networks and many others are trying to figure out their strategy.
3. IoT – The Year’s Hottest Three Letter Acronym — These 3 letters – standing for the “Internet of Things” – were everywhere.  They were on the signs of practically every booth and on the tip of everyone’s tongue.  No doubt, the ability to connect sensors, devices and “things” to the Internet is the next wave of mobile growth and presents tremendous opportunities for technology vendors to sell new products and services.  A number of key partnerships were announced and some very interesting and compelling industrial IoT case studies were promoted.  The mobile operators shouted out their relevance in IoT by displaying their platforms, capabilities and lighthouse customer engagements.
4. The Next Not So New Devices – In the shows of past, some of the biggest highlights were the highly publicized announcements of the next sleek and sexy smartphone.  While all of the manufacturers proudly displayed their range of devices, there didn’t seem to be any buzz about the “next big thing”.  Samsung announced it’s new Galaxy S7, but you had to look hard to understand how it really differed from their S6, which they announced with a big splash last year.  Similarly, wearables were on display, but not front and center like they were in 2015.  Phenomenal progress has been made in the smartphone and device space over the years, but I think that we have currently reached an innovation plateau.  In fact, I think that there might actually have been fewer, and a narrower range, of devices than in the previous year.   
5. Virtual Reality Becomes Virtually Real — Not only did Samsung demonstrate its cool new virtual reality devices at the show, but they had a temporary building in the center of Barcelona, Plaza de Catalyuna, welcoming long queues of the general public to sample these new worlds.  HTC also demonstrated its VR devices, signaling the start of the virtual reality wars.  Several exhibitors were also using virtual reality devices to enhance the impact of their messaging.  Interestingly, while VR is a hot area, the consensus of a dinner of industry experts that I attended was that VR will be like 3D TV – a niche experience a select customer segment.  However, we all expect VR to have a big impact in re-shaping many businesses – far beyond the gaming world.
6. Virtualization Reality — Virtualization and the cloud have finally hit the core mobile network elements.  Not only will this make it less expensive for operators to build networks, but it will provide them with much greater flexibility and responsiveness and allow the network to extend well beyond the boundaries of the traditional mobile network.   SDN (Software Defined Networks) are also critical to the new network architectures.  Network virtualization is finally hitting the mainstream.    Mobile operators, such as Telefonica, China Mobile, AT&T and NTT DoCoMo, announced fully operational NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) deployments.  And many others announced their plans for getting there.
7. Mobile Monetization – An Industry on the Edge — At one time, service providers were the kings of the show.  They are now just one of the participants in the massive and rapidly changing mobile industry.  The decline in voice traffic, loss of messaging and competition to their data business from over the top providers and alternative access networks such as Wi-Fi, means that they desperately need to find new ways to make money.  Most of the world’s major mobile operators now have their own large and prominently placed booths on the show floor.   They are proudly displaying the latest business solutions, cloud services, gaming, IoT and other innovative mobile offerings that they have to sell.  They are hoping that these new revenue-generating opportunities will move them beyond merely connectivity providers and deliver the next wave of monetization opportunities.
8. The Battle for the Great Indoors — Changes in devices, applications and social behavior are re-defining mobility from an on-the-go activity to a more nomadic activity, which takes place largely indoors.  Traditional macro networks have a tough time penetrating buildings and reaching indoors.  Hence operators are struggling to provide 5 bar coverage in homes, offices and public spaces.  Traditional mobile technology vendors are now showcasing their small cell, Wi-Fi and DAS solutions as the answer to this challenge of lighting up the indoors.  At one time, these solutions were relegated to the back corner, but they are increasingly becoming center stage as a solution to this new and growing problem.  Not to mention, they offer an attractive new revenue opportunity for traditional macro network vendors.
9. The Mobile Ad Battles – A big bomb was dropped during that show was the announcement that the mobile operator Three was working with the Israeli start-up, Shine, to block mobile ads from being displayed to their subscribers.  Unlike ad blockers installed on smartphones, this blocking would be done in the core of the operators’ networks.  Mobile operators estimate that up to one-third of the traffic on their networks is generated from mobile advertising.  In addition to reducing the demand on their networks, operators argue that blocking this unwanted traffic is providing a valuable service to their customers who end up paying for these invasive ads from their data plans.  The counter argument of the advertising industry is that ads pay for the Internet and the services that users enjoy.  The majority of the operators who I spoke with suggested that There Mobile was not unique and that they expected many other operators to follow suit, banning mobile ads on their networks.  Let the mobile ad wars begin.
10. Mobile Payments – Maybe Next Year? — The last point that I always seem to make on these reviews of MWC is on mobile payments.  At last year’s show I was hopeful that with the launch of Apple Pay and Samsung Pay that 2015 might finally be the year of the long awaited mobile payments.  Alas, that does not seem to be the case.  According to one analyst, only 6% of eligible Apple users actually use Apple Pay.  And, the number is even lower for Samsung and Google Pay.   This despair in the adoption of mobile payments was evident on the show floor.  Besides, a few small vendors scattered at the edges of the more distant halls, Master Card and Visa were they only exhibitors that I saw actively promoting mobile payments.  Well, there is always next year…

2015 – A Tipping Point for the Internet of Things

2015 will be remembered as the year of the Internet of things.  The tipping point when IoT went from the back rooms of the technology world to become mainstream.  

 

The consultancy McKinsey estimates that the Internet of Things - a world where up to 50 billion things (or devices) will be connected to the Internet – could create up to $11 trillion per year of new economic value to business and society.  The term Internet of Things traces its origins to 1999, but it is only over the last year or so that the realization of its transformational potential has reached the business community and the general population.  The number of research reports, conferences and media articles devoted to the topic has exploded.  With the media making the connection between the smart home and the connected automobile IOT has begun to become part of the popular parlance.  In fact, a Google search for Internet of Things reveals 725 billion results.

Google Trends also reveals that 2014 and 2015 were pivotal years in the dawn of the IoT revolution, as evidenced by the explosion in the number of IOT related searches.  Over the past two years there have been big announcements from all of the major car manufacturers of their connected car initiatives, lots of M&A activity in the technology industry as they race to supply the revolution, and major global alliances of telecom providers being formed, to provide the underlying connectivity and infrastructure.  But, most of all, we are actually starting to see some of the promised transformational benefits of the Internet of Things becoming a reality.

Companies like GE have connected sensors to their jet engines to provide near real-time monitoring of the health of their engines, reducing airline spending by 10-40%.  In shifting from rules-based maintenance to more predictive driven intervention, GE has fundamentally shifted its business from one of selling jet engines to airlines to providing a comprehensive, engine-as-a-service offering.  Using GPS and vehicle monitoring sensors many utility companies are now able to more accurately monitor the performance of installation and repair personnel.  General Motors uses sensors to monitor humidity to optimize painting; if the conditions are unfavorable, the work is routed to another part of the factory, thereby reducing repainting and maximizing plant uptime. 

The oil and gas industry is probably one of the most advanced users of IoT technology with new production platforms containing more than 30,000 sensors, connected through a sophisticated central control and data management systems.  IoT is also creeping into our everyday lives, with home security, thermostats and monitoring connected to data analytics and all controlled through our smart phones.  With an estimated 130 million consumers worldwide using fitness trackers today, the reality of more efficient, and personal effective health care is starting to become a reality.

It is not just businesses that are reaping the benefits of the IoT revolution.  Cities around the globe are beginning to build out new digital services such as smart lighting, traffic, waste management and data analytics to reduce costs, tap new sources of revenue, create new innovation business districts and improve the overall quality of urban life. Real-time bus information is now available in New York City, Chicago, Singapore, and many other cities, significantly improving, not only the wait times for riders, but the operations of the transit authority.  Similarly, by using real-time data to adjust the timing of traffic lights to improve traffic flow Abu Dhabi has been able to speed traffic flow in the city by up to 25 percent.

Telecom companies have realized that the IoT revolution holds for them the promise of new found revenues in connecting the projected 50 billion things.  The number of cellular machine-to-machine connections grew 28 percent in 2014 and is estimated to reach to 1 billion connections annually by 2020.  AT&T reported that it has more than 22 million IoT devices connected to its network.  Recognizing the huge opportunity afforded by the IoT revolution, the large French telecom operator Orange recently announced that €600 million ($670 million) of its revenues will come from the Internet of Things related businesses by 2018.  Leading technology companies like Cisco, IBM and Ericsson have all realized the opportunities of the next technology revolution by creating IoT business units, new product lines and extensive marketing campaigns.  Industry analysts, consultants and other technology services companies have similarly organized to benefit from the Internet of Things.

The dawn of the IoT revolution may have begun but it will still be some time before its transformational powers will be fully felt.  There are a number of technical, business, regulatory and perception obstacles that must first be overcome.  We are still very much in the early days of the IoE revolution with many companies knowing that they need to do something but not sure, what or how. 

Recent Cisco research of enterprise IT and business decision makers revealed that their top 3 challenges with implementing IoT initiatives in their businesses were: 1) security of business data; 2) standardization of IoT infrastructure and compatibility with business systems; and, 3) cost of implementation.  The critical issues of security and data privacy are critical elements that are being addresses, but we still have a long way to go to allay these justified fears around IoT implementations.  Equally, there are organizations and committees that are working hard on establishing IoT standards to ensure compatibility between all of the different IoT components. 

The current IoT technology and solutions environment is very much a Tower of Babel when it comes to interoperability and compatibility.  Government regulation will no doubt play an important part in shaping security and privacy, driving standards and forming the legal framework for such leading-edge innovations as self-driving cars and autonomous machinery.  The IoT supplier market is currently very fragmented with a multitude of big and small companies providing single pieces of the IoT implementation – devices, application, point solutions, different platforms, etc. 

Now that the Internet of Things has gone mainstream these challenges will be resolved and IoT will become a fact of life for businesses and society alike.  In fact, one day IoT will cease to exist.  In the future, it will be hard to imagine that all things weren’t connected and that the extraordinary benefits of IoT hadn’t always been with us.

I welcome the Internet of Things to 2016 and beyond.  I can’t wait to see how this new technology revolution continues to transform our lives.

The Internet of Things Revolution Has Only Just Begun

We are in the early days of another transformative technology revolution.  The consultancy McKinsey estimates that the Internet of Things - a world where up to 50 billion things (or devices) will be connected to the Internet – could create up to $11 trillion per year of new economic value to business and society.  The term Internet of Things traces its origins to 1999, but it is only over the last year or so that the realization of its transformational potential has reached the business community and the general population.  The number of research reports, conferences and media articles devoted to the topic has exploded.  With the media making the connection between the smart home and the connected automobile IOT has begun to become part of the popular parlance.  In fact, a Google search for Internet of Things reveals 725 billion results.

Google Trends also reveals that 2014 and 2015 were pivotal years in the dawn of the IoT revolution, as evidenced by the explosion in the number of IOT related seraches.  Over the past two years there have been big announcements from all of the major car manufacturers of their connected car initiatives, lots of M&A activity in the technology industry as they race to supply the revolution, and major global alliances of telecom providers being formed, to provide the underlying connectivity and infrastructure.  But, most of all, we are actually starting to see some of the promised transformational benefits of the Internet of Things becoming a reality.

Companies like GE have connected sensors to their jet engines to provide near real-time monitoring of the health of their engines, reducing airline spending by 10-40%.  In shifting from rules-based maintenance to more predictive driven intervention, GE has fundamentally shifted its business from one of selling jet engines to airlines to providing a comprehensive, engine-as-a-service offering.  Using GPS and vehicle monitoring sensors many utility companies are now able to more accurately monitor the performance of installation and repair personnel.  General Motors uses sensors to monitor humidity to optimize painting; if the conditions are unfavorable, the work is routed to another part of the factory, thereby reducing repainting and maximizing plant uptime.  The oil and gas industry is probably one of the most advanced users of IoT technology with new production platforms containing more than 30,000 sensors, connected through a sophisticated central control and data management systems.  IoT is also creeping into our everyday lives, with home security, thermostats and monitoring connected to data analytics and all controlled through our smart phones.  With an estimated 130 million consumers worldwide using fitness trackers today, the reality of more efficient, and personal effective health care is starting to become a reality. 

It is not just businesses that are reaping the benefits of the IoT revolution.  Cities around the globe are beginning to build out new digital services such as smart lighting, traffic, waste management and data analytics to reduce costs, tap new sources of revenue, create new innovation business districts and improve the overall quality of urban life. Real-time bus information is now available in New York City, Chicago, Singapore, and many other cities, significantly improving, not only the wait times for riders, but the operations of the transit authority.  Similarly, by using real-time data to adjust the timing of traffic lights to improve traffic flow Abu Dhabi has been able to speed traffic flow in the city by up to 25 percent.

Telecom companies have realized that the IoT revolution holds for them the promise of new found revenues in connecting the projected 50 billion things.  The number of cellular machine-to-machine connections grew 28 percent in 2014 and is estimated to reach to 1 billion connections annually by 2020.  AT&T reported that it has more than 22 million IoT devices connected to its network.  Recognizing the huge opportunity afforded by the IoT revolution, the large French telecom operator Orange recently announced that €600 million ($670 million) of its revenues will come from the Internet of Things related businesses by 2018.  Leading technology companies like Cisco, IBM and Ericsson have all realized the opportunities of the next technology revolution by creating IoT business units, new product lines and extensive marketing campaigns.  Industry analysts, consultants and other technology services companies have similarly organized to benefit from the Internet of Things.

The dawn of the IoT revolution may have begun but it will still be some time before its transformational powers will be fully felt.  There are a number of technical, business, regulatory and perception obstacles that must first be overcome.  We are still very much in the early days of the IoE revolution with many companies knowing that they need to do something but not sure, what or how.  A study by Harvard Business Review and Verizon found that less than ten percent of enterprises had deployed IoT initiatives.  And, of that small minority only 56 percent of those had an IoT strategy.  What does that say for the 90 percent of companies who have yet to implement IoT initiatives? 

Recent Cisco research of enterprise IT and business decision makers revealed that their top 3 challenges with implementing IoT initiatives in their businesses were: 1) security of business data; 2) standardization of IoT infrastructure and compatibility with business systems; and, 3) cost of implementation.  The critical issues of security and data privacy are critical elements that are being addresses, but we still have a long way to go to allay these justified fears around IoT implementations.  Equally, there are organizations and committees that are working hard on establishing IoT standards to ensure compatibility between all of the different IoT components.  However, the current IoT technology and solutions environment is very much a Tower of Babel when it comes to interoperability and compatibility.  Government regulation will no doubt play an important part in shaping security and privacy, driving standards and forming the legal framework for such leading-edge innovations as self-driving cars and autonomous machinery.

The IoT supplier market is currently very fragmented with a multitude of big and small companies providing single pieces of the IoT implementation – devices, application, point solutions, different platforms, etc.  The same Cisco end user research found that customers are not only looking to suppliers to provide them with end-to-end solutions but are looking for a broader array of services to help them successfully navigate this new technology revolution.  Specifically, the top things that businesses are looking for from an IoT provider include: 1) full solutions; 2) services (strategic planning, install, design, technical support); 3) solutions that leverage existing infrastructure; and, 4) the ability to scale with organization’s needs.  It could be some time before a number of key IoT suppliers emerge from the current fragmented market to successfully address all of the businesses needs and help them to fully realize the promised benefits of the IoT revolution.

What does the future have in store for IoT and how will this revolution unfold?  The following are my ten predictions of what we have to look forward to: 

1. The platform is the key to success – The “things” will get increasingly cheaper, applications will multiply and connectivity will cost pennies.  The real value will be created in the horizontal platform that ties it all together – the new OS.  This platform will be composed of 3 different layers: management, infrastructure, and data analytics and insights.
2. The industry will look completely different than it does today – Like in the early days of the Internet, IoT is a greenfield market.  New players, with new business models, approaches, and solutions can appear out of nowhere and overtake incumbents.   
3. Business is the key market - While there is lots of talk about wearables and connected homes, the real value and immediate market for IoT is with businesses and enterprises.  The adoption of IoT will be much more like the traditional IT diffusion model (businesses to consumers) than the Consumer-led adoption of social media and personal mobility. 
4. It will be about much more than the “things” – The currency of IoT will be “data”.  But, this new currency only has value if the masses of data can be translated into insights and information which can be converted into concrete actions that will transform businesses, change people’s lives and effect social change.
5. The “Connected Car” will be all about the car – There is currently a lot of hype about turning your car into a mobile entertainment center – music, video, social media and all of the apps that we currently enjoy on our smartphones.  However, the real value and transformation is in connecting the car operations (e.g., service updates, advanced notifications of failures) and drastically improving safety (e.g., inter-car communications, semi-autonomous driving).  These services will most likely be paid for by the manufacturer or through new, alternative business models, rather than directly by the driver.  
6. IoT will force business transformation – Businesses which connected to the Internet saw the real value when they re-designed their businesses models and processes for a connected world, and found new online products and services to offer.  Some companies immediately embraced the Dot-Com world, many had false starts and many others took a long time to jump on, or the revolution passed them by completely.  The same will be true of IoT.  Businesses need to develop strategies and plans for how they can leverage IoT to transform all aspects of their businesses and capture the real value of this revolutionary technology.  
7. Trading mobile dollars for IoT pennies – Mobile operators are salivating at the new revenues to be earned from connecting all of these things to the Internet.  However, it is not that straight forward.  While some of the traffic will flow over mobile networks, the majority of the connections will be made over wireline or unlicensed wireless networks, and much of it will be very low bandwidth traffic. Mobile operators will need to do more than just sell mobile connectivity to inanimate objects to reap the full rewards of IoT. 
8. There will be a battle for IoT application mindshare – With billions of devices projected to be spewing out petabytes of data, application developers will have a field day launching thousands, or even millions, of new and cool apps.  But, like the smartphone world, all of these apps will be fighting for mindshare and only a few will rise to the top to be valued by businesses and consumers. 
9. All cities will be smart – With more than one-half of the world’s population living cities innovative new IoT solutions, such as smart parking, connected waste, and traffic management, hold great promise for combatting the major challenges of rapid urbanization.  We are unlikely to see many Jetson-like smart cities of the future appearing overnight.  However, like in the past with the adoption of revolutionary technologies such as sewers, electricity, traffic lights, and the Internet, mayors will slowly implement IoT solutions to save money, shape the future and make their cities better places to live.  
10. IoT will cease to exist – Terms like “eCommerce”, “the Net” and “WWW” are all quaint reminders of how the Internet has ceased to be an exciting and mysterious new thing, and, like electricity, is now just part of our daily lives.  The Internet of Things will go the same way.  One day soon, it will be hard to imagine that all things weren’t connected and that the extraordinary benefits of IoT hadn’t always been with us.

Who Will Be the Winners in the IoT Revolution?

Every new technology revolution creates new technology company powerhouses and relegates others to the ashes of history.  The PC revolution gave us the likes of Microsoft and Intel, the Internet revolution created companies like Cisco, Google, and Amazon, and lately the mobile revolution has created market giants like Apple, Samsung and Facebook.  

We are in the early days of another transformative technology revolution – The Internet of Things.  Connected everything to everything in a smart, data-rich world will fundamentally transform businesses, generate enormous economic wealth and create immeasurable social value.  There is immense opportunity for suppliers to help businesses to achieve these tantalizing new benefits.  But, who will be the winning suppliers in the IoT revolution?   

Despite the Internet (connectivity) and Things (devices) being the key terms in the title of the next technology revolution, this is not where the money will be made.  It is estimated that there could be up to 50 billion connected devices in the next five years.  But, these will be largely low cost, low power devices with long replacement cycles.  We have all seen what happens in the device and hardware business – a steep declining price curve.  For example, the cost of semiconductors on a per-transistor has plummeted 50 percent in the last 3 years.  Effectively, lots of volume but a low margin business. 

Service providers are salivating at the thought of connecting the estimated 50 billion inanimate objects to the Internet.  However, the vast majority of these devices will require very low bandwidth as opposed to the demands of chatty and data hungry mobile users.  Equally, most of these connections will be over unlicensed networks, like Wi-Fi, rather the lucrative cellular networks.  Chasing value from connectivity effectively becomes a game of “trading mobile dollars for IoT pennies.” 

While there might not be huge value from chasing catchy IoT term itself, there are good opportunities to generate good money from supplying the IoT revolution.  Success will result in the creation of the next tech giants of this new era.  There are three key areas for value creation: 

1. Platform.  Successful IoT implementations require a comprehensive business and technical architecture – the IoT Platform – to provide the building blocks of the underlying infrastructure.  This platform is comprised of 3 broad areas: 1) Technical – cloud storage and compute, security, etc.; 2) Data Management – capture, management, analytics, etc.; and 3) Management – policy, device, API and application framework. These platforms are horizontal plays that can be leveraged across multiple industry verticals, allowing suppliers to reap the benefits of economies of scope and scale.
2. Solutions.  Implementing effective IoT systems is complicated and often requires considerable customization.  Providers who can provide end-to-end solutions (hardware, software, data insights, implementation and services) will be clear winners.  Successful solutions will have an industry vertical wrapper to make them relevant to the customer’s particular needs.  These solution providers will create new business models to deliver “IoT as-a-service” and outcomes-based financial models.  For example, IoT-enabled machinery as a service, or payments based on energy savings will be new models that will reduce the risk to businesses and ensure successful IoT implementations.  Providers who can successfully deliver solutions, vertical expertise and new business models will create deep and enduring relationships with their customers.
3. Business Integration.  IoT is only as good as its successful implementation and adoption by the business.  As we saw in the Internet revolution, there is a big need for outside providers to help companies to make this transition and to realize the promised benefits of the new technology.  Key business integration needs include: 1) Business Consulting –identifying opportunities, creating the business case, re-engineering the business and change management; 2) Systems Integration – integrating IoT systems with existing systems, data and processes; 3) Management – program management, ongoing operations and outsourcing of key operation

Helping to deliver the IoT revolution presents huge opportunities for business and technology suppliers.  The winners will be those companies that bring distinctive technologies, innovation, new business models and deep industry knowledge to the three key areas of IoT value creation.

10 Predictions for the Future of the Internet of Things

We are in the early days of another transformative technology revolution.  Wired magazine described a new era where “the most mundane items in our lives can talk wirelessly among themselves, performing tasks on command, giving us data we’ve never had before.”  The Internet of Things (IoT) is a world where up to 50 billion things (or devices) will be connected to the Internet by 2020; or, the equivalent of 6 devices for every person on the planet.   

We are already starting to see the emergence of smart cities, connected utilities, connected railways, connected factories, connected cars, and even connected mines, to name but a few.  The Internet of Things will fundamentally transform businesses, generate enormous economic wealth and create immeasurable social value.     

What does the future have in store for IoT?  The following are my ten predictions of what we have to look forward to: 

1. The platform is the key to success – The “things” will get increasingly cheaper, applications will multiply and connectivity will cost pennies.  The real value will be created in the horizontal platform that ties it all together – the new OS.  This platform will be composed of 3 different layers: management, infrastructure, and data analytics and insights.
2. The industry will look completely different than it does today – Like in the early days of the Internet, IoT is a greenfield market.  New players, with new business models, approaches, and solutions can appear out of nowhere and overtake incumbents. 
3. Business is the key market - While there is lots of talk about wearables and connected homes, the real value and immediate market for IoT is with businesses and enterprises.  The adoption of IoT will be much more like the traditional IT diffusion model (businesses to consumers) than the Consumer-led adoption of social media and personal mobility.
4. It will be about much more than the “things” – The currency of IoT will be “data”.  But, this new currency only has value if the masses of data can be translated into insights and information which can be converted into concrete actions that will transform businesses, change people’s lives and effect social change.
5. The “Connected Car” will be all about the car – There is currently a lot of hype about turning your car into a mobile entertainment center – music, video, social media and all of the apps that we currently enjoy on our smartphones.  However, the real value and transformation is in connecting the car operations (e.g., service updates, advanced notifications of failures) and drastically improving safety (e.g., inter-car communications, semi-autonomous driving).  These services will most likely be paid for by the manufacturer or through new, alternative business models, rather than directly by the driver.
6. IoT will force business transformation – Businesses which connected to the Internet saw the real value when they re-designed their businesses models and processes for a connected world, and found new online products and services to offer.  Some companies immediately embraced the Dot-Com world, many had false starts and many others took a long time to jump on, or the revolution passed them by completely.  The same will be true of IoT.  Businesses need to develop strategies and plans for how they can leverage IoT to transform all aspects of their businesses and capture the real value of this revolutionary technology.
7. Trading mobile dollars for IoT pennies – It is no wonder that the mobile operators are salivating at the prospect of a windfall of new revenue to be earned from connecting the projected 50 billion devices, or things, to the Internet.  However, it is not that straight forward.  While some of the traffic will flow over mobile networks, the majority of the connections will be made over wireline or unlicensed wireless networks. And, many of the IOT devices require very low bandwidth - simply conveying their status on an occasional basis and then remaining dormant until this status changes.  Mobile operators will need to do more than just sell mobile connectivity to inanimate objects to reap the full rewards of IoT.
8. There will be a battle for IoT application mindshare – With billions of devices devices projected to be spewing out petabytes of data, application developers will have a field day launching thousands, or even millions, of new and cool apps.  But, like the smartphone world, all of these apps will be fighting for mindshare and only a few will rise to the top to be valued by businesses and consumers.
9. All cities will be smart – With more than one-half of the world’s population living cities innovative new IoT solutions, such as smart parking, connected waste, and traffic management, hold great promise for combatting the major challenges of rapid urbanization.  We are unlikely to see many Jetson-like smart cities of the future appearing overnight.  However, like in the past with the adoption of revolutionary technologies such as sewers, electricity, traffic lights, and the Internet, mayors will slowly implement IoT solutions to save money, shape the future and make their cities better places to live.
10. IoT will cease to exist – Terms like “eCommerce”, “the Net” and “WWW” are all quaint reminders of how the Internet has ceased to be an exciting and mysterious new thing, and, like electricity, is now just part of our daily lives.  The Internet of Things will go the same way.  One day soon, it will be hard to imagine that all things weren’t connected and that the extraordinary benefits of IoT hadn’t always been with us.

Observations from Mobile World Congress 2015

I have just returned from a very interesting and jammed-packed week at Mobile World Congress 2015 in Barcelona.  A record 93,000 plus people are estimated to have attended this year’s premier technology festival.  Much has changed in the industry over the last year since I reported my observations of MWC 2014.  However, what is most remarkable is how the boundaries of mobility continue to expand and morph – everything now seems to be mobile?  As such, the show offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of technology and the major social and business shifts that we can expect in the next few years.
The following are my personal observations and extrapolations from the show, based on my conversations with operators, customer meetings, analysts, and colleagues, as well as from simply walking the show floor.

1. 5G – The Next New Technology — What is a technology show without a shiny new technology? Despite the fact that less than 5 per cent of global subscribers have adopted the previous new technology (4G), and over half of mobile users are still back on the second generation (2G) technology, we are now entering the fifth generation of mobile technology – 5G. The remarkable thing though is that no one really knows what 5G is. There are no technical standards or industry agreements on the definition of 5G. However, every major vendor is now “5G ready” and promoting their 5G solutions. And mobile operators like KT and SKT in South Korea are aggressively promoting their pending 5G deployments.
2. IoT – The Year’s Hottest Three Letter Acronym — These 3 letters – standing for the “Internet of Things” – were everywhere. They were on the signs of practically every booth and on the tip of everyone’s tongue. No doubt, the ability to connect sensors, devices and “things” to the Internet is the next wave of mobile growth and presents tremendous opportunities for technology vendors to sell new products and services. A number of key partnerships were announced and some very interesting and compelling industrial IoT case studies were promoted. The mobile operators shouted out their relevance in IoT by displaying their platforms, capabilities and lighthouse customer engagements.
3. Smart Phone Wars – Samsung won the unofficial market launch of the show with its slickly executed unveiling of the new S6. This stunning new device is Samsung’s attempt to get back into the game – trying to recover some of the ground lost to the new iPhone 6 and to firmly establish itself as the Android leader. While many other manufacturers launched new smartphones, Samsung was by far the most talked about brand at MWC. In the continuing saga of the smart phone wars, it looks like we might be back to a 2 player game again for a while?
4. Building the New Mobile — For those of you who follow me, you will know that I have long been a proponent of a “Wi-Fi Max-Mobile Min” strategy to create a new mobile service.   With the near ubiquity of Wi-Fi enabled devices, Wi-Fi access in homes and offices and the growth of public Wi-Fi, there is an opportunity to create a new type of mobile service running largely over Wi-Fi. While there have been a number of smaller, niche players (e.g., Republic Wireless, Scratch), it wasn’t until Google announced that they were getting into the game that it started to get serious. Sundar Pichai of Google gave an unsettling (at least for the traditional MNOs) keynote describing how Google’s MVNO would be primarily based on Wi-Fi, and when that was absent it would select the best, and cheapest, cellular coverage from a number of the big mobile providers.
5. The Connected Car Show — At times you could be forgiven for thinking that you had wandered into the auto show in Geneva or Detroit instead of MWC. There were cars everywhere. The industry sees these as “smart phones on wheels.’ Operators, such as AT&T were crowing about their big deal to connect all new Audis. Auto manufactures, such as Ford, were demonstrating the cool things that you could do with their connected cars. And for some reason, even exhibitors like Visa had cars at their booths. These were not just any cars – they were Porches, Audis, Mercedes, Maserati’s and every other high-end auto you can imagine.   Fancy cars are now the standard “eye candy” at big technology shows.
6. Virtual Reality — Samsung demonstrated a very cool technology for adapting one of their Galaxy Note 4’s or the new S6 into a virtual reality device. Not only does VR make games incredibly cool, but it has lots of applications to industry, enhancing solutions and business processes. HTC is working on a similar VR adaptor for its mobile devices. Several exhibitors were also using virtual reality devices to enhance the impact of their messaging. As virtual reality becomes integrated with cost-effective, and near ubiquitous smart phones, we can expect it to have a big impact on re-shaping many businesses – far beyond the gaming world.
7. Virtualization Reality — Virtualization and the cloud have finally hit the core mobile network elements. Not only will this make it less expensive for operators to build networks, but will provide them with much greater flexibility and responsiveness and allow the network to extend well beyond the boundaries of the traditional mobile network.   This is the year that the promise finally started to become a reality. Mobile operators, such as Telefonica, China Mobile and NTT DoCoMo, announced fully operational NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) deployments. AT&T reiterated its desire to move 75 percent of its network to a cloud architecture by 2020.
8. Making Wearables Wearable — There were 53 wearable devices on display at the show – 10 of which had their own SIMs to connect directly to the mobile network. The majority of these were smart watches and fitness trackers. The challenge, however, seems to be getting people besides device geeks to wear these. Huawei made a very interesting debut in this category with a high-end watch with a round-faced classic design. It looked like something that even James Bond might wear. And, although Apple was nowhere to be seen, rumors (and subsequent launch) of its new Apple Watch presented additional hope that wearables might in fact become wearable.
9. Mobile Monetization – An Industry on the Edge — At one time, service providers were the kings of the show. They are now just one of the participants in the massive and rapidly changing mobile industry. The decline in voice traffic, loss of messaging and competition to their data business from over the top providers and alternative access networks such as Wi-Fi, means that they desperately need to find new ways to make money. Most of the world’s major mobile operators now have their own large and prominently placed booths on the show floor. They are proudly displaying the latest business solutions, cloud services, gaming, IoT and other innovative mobile offerings that they have to sell. They are hoping that these new revenue-generating opportunities will move them beyond merely connectivity providers and deliver the next wave of monetization opportunities.
10. The Battle for the Great Indoors — Changes in devices, applications and social behavior are re-defining mobility from an on-the-go activity to a more nomadic activity, which takes place largely indoors. Traditional macro networks have a tough time penetrating buildings and reaching indoors. Hence operators are struggling to provide 5 bar coverage in homes, offices and public spaces. Traditional mobile technology vendors are now showcasing their small cell, Wi-Fi and DAS solutions as the answer to this challenge of lighting up the indoors. At one time, these solutions were relegated to the back corner, but they are increasingly becoming center stage as a solution to this new and growing problem. Not to mention, they offer an attractive new revenue opportunity for traditional macro network vendors.
11. Selfie Journalism – TV Production in the Palm of Your Hand – It was truly amazing to watch journalists reporting on the show holding their smartphones at arms-length in one hand and an attached professional-grade microphone in the other. In the past crews of cameramen and soundmen would have been needed to produce professional quality reporting from remote locations. The mobile revolution has created “selfie-journalism”, replacing these crews with one reporter, a smartphone and some clever software. The BBC did an interesting story on how they filmed, edited and produced their coverage of MWC entirely on mobile devices.
12. Mobile Payments – This May Be The Year? — The last point that I always seem to make on these reviews of MWC is on mobile payments. Once again, mobile payment solutions from banks, credit-card companies, MNOs and other providers were all competing to create a wallet-less world. However, unlike the promises of past shows, this may be the year that mobile payments finally take-off. With the launch of Apple Pay earlier this year and the big announcement that Samsung’s new S6 would incorporate technology from their recent acquisition of Loop (making mobile phones work with any existing magnetic card reader) we may finally start to leave our wallets at home.

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10 Predictions for the Future of Wi-Fi and Mobility

The close of every year brings startling headlines that herald the continued meteoric rise of mobility.  This past year was no exception.  The 2014 announcement that there are now more mobile subscribers than inhabitants on the planet exemplified the mobile zeitgeist and its importance in our daily lives. 

But, the big mobile news in 2014 was around Wi-Fi.  Wi-Fi continues to blanket the world, with iPass estimating that the number of public hotspots will increase almost 8-fold over the next four years to cover 1 out of every 20 people on the planet.  And, Wi-Fi is becoming more like the mobile cellular experience.  The seamless authentication and experience promised by Hotspot 2.0 is now available, with Time Warner and others announcing last year that they would roll it out across their entire Wi-Fi networks. And, we can now roam to other international Wi-Fi networks, like we do on cellular, with Comcast and Liberty Global, and other providers, announcing global roaming agreements.  And, 2014 saw mobile operators beginning to embrace Wi-Fi in a big way.  T-Mobile USA began shipping wireless routers to provide five bars coverage at home by allowing customers to make calls over Wi-Fi instead of the mobile network.   

Of all the 2014 Wi-Fi activities, perhaps the biggest event was Apple’s announcement that the new iPhone 6 would support Wi-Fi calling (Voice over Wi-Fi).  This technology bombshell indicated that Wi-Fi had truly arrived and should now be considered a true partner and complement to traditional cellular. 

What does 2015, and beyond, have in store for Wi-Fi and mobility?  The following are my ten predictions of what we have to look forward to: 

1.    Wi-Fi will be “almost everywhere” – While we may not find it on mountain tops, in remote locations or along highways, Wi-Fi will be in most places where we spend our lives – homes, schools, work, shopping malls, hospitals, sports facilities, etc. 

2.    Providing Wi-Fi will be a “cost of doing business” – Like providing lighting and heating, customers of retailers, restaurants, sports venues and all other customer-facing organizations will expect Wi-Fi to “just be there”. 

3.    Consumers will expect Wi-Fi to be free, or almost free – The bar has largely been set – with the exception of some “expense account” venues like hotels, customers will expect to have Wi-Fi included as part of the overall service. 

4.    Wi-Fi will become an important part of indoor mobile coverage – As the mobile battle moves indoors, Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi calling will be important ways for mobile operators to enhance their indoor coverage. 

5.    Wi-Fi will be a key access technology for Internet of Things enablement – Due to cost, coverage and bandwidth challenges of mobile cellular, Wi-Fi will be the key connectivity technology for home, business and public IoT deployments. 

6.    Public Wi-Fi will get better – With growing customer demand and expectations, public hot spots will need to upgrade their infrastructure to move beyond the initial “trial” phase of many public deployments. 

7.    Service Providers will be the major builders and operators of Wi-Fi networks – Given the growing complexity and importance of their Wi-Fi networks, many business will want to outsource the deployment and operations to a service provider as a managed service; concurrently allowing SPs to expand their growing Wi-Fi networks. 

8.    Wi-Fi wholesale and roaming agreements – We will see more domestic and globally roaming agreements to create a mobile-like experience.  Wi-Fi network operators will wholesale network capacity, and site locations for licensed small cells, to mobile operators to help them to extend their networks. 

9.    New Wi-Fi Max models – Wi-Fi centric mobile offerings, with cellular fallback, will expand beyond niche providers, such as Scratch Wireless and Republic, to more mainstream landline and cable service providers as their core mobile offering. 

10. “Next Generation Wi-Fi Monetization” – With public Wi-Fi becoming essentially free, businesses will look to new monetization models, like advertising, data analytics and advanced location-based services, to recover Wi-Fi network costs.

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