Witnessing the Future of Technology at Mobile World Congress 2016

I have just returned from a very interesting and jammed-packed week at Mobile World Congress 2016 in Barcelona.  For the first time ever, over 100,000 people and 2,200 plus vendors attended this year’s premier technology festival.  Much has changed in the industry over the last year since I reported my observations of MWC 2015.  However, what is most remarkable is how the boundaries of mobility continue to expand and morph – everything now seems to be mobile?  As such, the show offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of technology and the major social and business shifts that we can expect in the next few years. 

The big take-away for me was that the show seems to have returned somewhat to its roots.  While there were still lots of new smartphones, wearables and cars scattered around the show floor, they seemed to be more wallpaper, or in the background.  Much of the buzz and marketing was around new network technologies and the core business of the mobile industry.  The new things were 5G networks, low powered networks, and the new Internet of Things solutions that are going to ride over these new networks. 

The following are my personal observations and extrapolations from the show, based on my conversations with operators, customer meetings, analysts, and colleagues, as well as from simply walking the show floor. 

1. 5G – The Next New Technology —What is a technology show without a shiny new technology?  Despite the fact that only 20 per cent of global subscribers have adopted the previous new technology (4G), and many mobile users are still back on the second generation (2G) technology, we are now entering the fifth generation of mobile technology – 5G.  The remarkable thing though is that no one really knows what 5G is.  There are no agreed up technical standards or industry agreements on the definition of 5G.  And, the best estimates are that we really won’t see 5G becoming a reality until sometime in the middle of the next decade.  However, every major vendor is now “5G ready” and promoting their 5G solutions, and plastering the fact all over their exhibit booths.  Numerous announcements were made on new 5G partnerships and tests.  Verizon is looking to deploy in 2017 and the Japanese, Koreans and Russians have all promised to have 5G networks running in time for the various global sporting events that they are hosting. 
2. From High Power to Low Power Networks – At the other extreme from the futuristic, high-powered 5G networks are LPWA networks – Low Power Wide Area networks.  These networks cover wide areas (up to 30 km and more per base station), require very low power (the batteries of attached devices can last for years), and transmit very low amounts of data at slow speeds.  Many see these networks as an essential platform to realize the Internet of Things revolution.  Everything from water meters to parking meters and agriculture sensors could be hooked up to these networks and essentially forgotten for years.  Sigfox and LoRa are the current leading contenders for these networks, but the GSMA and others are frantically working to release a LTE-based version.  Providers, such as Orange, Proximus and KPN are currently deploying LPWA networks and many others are trying to figure out their strategy.
3. IoT – The Year’s Hottest Three Letter Acronym — These 3 letters – standing for the “Internet of Things” – were everywhere.  They were on the signs of practically every booth and on the tip of everyone’s tongue.  No doubt, the ability to connect sensors, devices and “things” to the Internet is the next wave of mobile growth and presents tremendous opportunities for technology vendors to sell new products and services.  A number of key partnerships were announced and some very interesting and compelling industrial IoT case studies were promoted.  The mobile operators shouted out their relevance in IoT by displaying their platforms, capabilities and lighthouse customer engagements.
4. The Next Not So New Devices – In the shows of past, some of the biggest highlights were the highly publicized announcements of the next sleek and sexy smartphone.  While all of the manufacturers proudly displayed their range of devices, there didn’t seem to be any buzz about the “next big thing”.  Samsung announced it’s new Galaxy S7, but you had to look hard to understand how it really differed from their S6, which they announced with a big splash last year.  Similarly, wearables were on display, but not front and center like they were in 2015.  Phenomenal progress has been made in the smartphone and device space over the years, but I think that we have currently reached an innovation plateau.  In fact, I think that there might actually have been fewer, and a narrower range, of devices than in the previous year.   
5. Virtual Reality Becomes Virtually Real — Not only did Samsung demonstrate its cool new virtual reality devices at the show, but they had a temporary building in the center of Barcelona, Plaza de Catalyuna, welcoming long queues of the general public to sample these new worlds.  HTC also demonstrated its VR devices, signaling the start of the virtual reality wars.  Several exhibitors were also using virtual reality devices to enhance the impact of their messaging.  Interestingly, while VR is a hot area, the consensus of a dinner of industry experts that I attended was that VR will be like 3D TV – a niche experience a select customer segment.  However, we all expect VR to have a big impact in re-shaping many businesses – far beyond the gaming world.
6. Virtualization Reality — Virtualization and the cloud have finally hit the core mobile network elements.  Not only will this make it less expensive for operators to build networks, but it will provide them with much greater flexibility and responsiveness and allow the network to extend well beyond the boundaries of the traditional mobile network.   SDN (Software Defined Networks) are also critical to the new network architectures.  Network virtualization is finally hitting the mainstream.    Mobile operators, such as Telefonica, China Mobile, AT&T and NTT DoCoMo, announced fully operational NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) deployments.  And many others announced their plans for getting there.
7. Mobile Monetization – An Industry on the Edge — At one time, service providers were the kings of the show.  They are now just one of the participants in the massive and rapidly changing mobile industry.  The decline in voice traffic, loss of messaging and competition to their data business from over the top providers and alternative access networks such as Wi-Fi, means that they desperately need to find new ways to make money.  Most of the world’s major mobile operators now have their own large and prominently placed booths on the show floor.   They are proudly displaying the latest business solutions, cloud services, gaming, IoT and other innovative mobile offerings that they have to sell.  They are hoping that these new revenue-generating opportunities will move them beyond merely connectivity providers and deliver the next wave of monetization opportunities.
8. The Battle for the Great Indoors — Changes in devices, applications and social behavior are re-defining mobility from an on-the-go activity to a more nomadic activity, which takes place largely indoors.  Traditional macro networks have a tough time penetrating buildings and reaching indoors.  Hence operators are struggling to provide 5 bar coverage in homes, offices and public spaces.  Traditional mobile technology vendors are now showcasing their small cell, Wi-Fi and DAS solutions as the answer to this challenge of lighting up the indoors.  At one time, these solutions were relegated to the back corner, but they are increasingly becoming center stage as a solution to this new and growing problem.  Not to mention, they offer an attractive new revenue opportunity for traditional macro network vendors.
9. The Mobile Ad Battles – A big bomb was dropped during that show was the announcement that the mobile operator Three was working with the Israeli start-up, Shine, to block mobile ads from being displayed to their subscribers.  Unlike ad blockers installed on smartphones, this blocking would be done in the core of the operators’ networks.  Mobile operators estimate that up to one-third of the traffic on their networks is generated from mobile advertising.  In addition to reducing the demand on their networks, operators argue that blocking this unwanted traffic is providing a valuable service to their customers who end up paying for these invasive ads from their data plans.  The counter argument of the advertising industry is that ads pay for the Internet and the services that users enjoy.  The majority of the operators who I spoke with suggested that There Mobile was not unique and that they expected many other operators to follow suit, banning mobile ads on their networks.  Let the mobile ad wars begin.
10. Mobile Payments – Maybe Next Year? — The last point that I always seem to make on these reviews of MWC is on mobile payments.  At last year’s show I was hopeful that with the launch of Apple Pay and Samsung Pay that 2015 might finally be the year of the long awaited mobile payments.  Alas, that does not seem to be the case.  According to one analyst, only 6% of eligible Apple users actually use Apple Pay.  And, the number is even lower for Samsung and Google Pay.   This despair in the adoption of mobile payments was evident on the show floor.  Besides, a few small vendors scattered at the edges of the more distant halls, Master Card and Visa were they only exhibitors that I saw actively promoting mobile payments.  Well, there is always next year…

Observations from Mobile World Congress 2015

I have just returned from a very interesting and jammed-packed week at Mobile World Congress 2015 in Barcelona.  A record 93,000 plus people are estimated to have attended this year’s premier technology festival.  Much has changed in the industry over the last year since I reported my observations of MWC 2014.  However, what is most remarkable is how the boundaries of mobility continue to expand and morph – everything now seems to be mobile?  As such, the show offers a fascinating glimpse into the future of technology and the major social and business shifts that we can expect in the next few years.
The following are my personal observations and extrapolations from the show, based on my conversations with operators, customer meetings, analysts, and colleagues, as well as from simply walking the show floor.

1. 5G – The Next New Technology — What is a technology show without a shiny new technology? Despite the fact that less than 5 per cent of global subscribers have adopted the previous new technology (4G), and over half of mobile users are still back on the second generation (2G) technology, we are now entering the fifth generation of mobile technology – 5G. The remarkable thing though is that no one really knows what 5G is. There are no technical standards or industry agreements on the definition of 5G. However, every major vendor is now “5G ready” and promoting their 5G solutions. And mobile operators like KT and SKT in South Korea are aggressively promoting their pending 5G deployments.
2. IoT – The Year’s Hottest Three Letter Acronym — These 3 letters – standing for the “Internet of Things” – were everywhere. They were on the signs of practically every booth and on the tip of everyone’s tongue. No doubt, the ability to connect sensors, devices and “things” to the Internet is the next wave of mobile growth and presents tremendous opportunities for technology vendors to sell new products and services. A number of key partnerships were announced and some very interesting and compelling industrial IoT case studies were promoted. The mobile operators shouted out their relevance in IoT by displaying their platforms, capabilities and lighthouse customer engagements.
3. Smart Phone Wars – Samsung won the unofficial market launch of the show with its slickly executed unveiling of the new S6. This stunning new device is Samsung’s attempt to get back into the game – trying to recover some of the ground lost to the new iPhone 6 and to firmly establish itself as the Android leader. While many other manufacturers launched new smartphones, Samsung was by far the most talked about brand at MWC. In the continuing saga of the smart phone wars, it looks like we might be back to a 2 player game again for a while?
4. Building the New Mobile — For those of you who follow me, you will know that I have long been a proponent of a “Wi-Fi Max-Mobile Min” strategy to create a new mobile service.   With the near ubiquity of Wi-Fi enabled devices, Wi-Fi access in homes and offices and the growth of public Wi-Fi, there is an opportunity to create a new type of mobile service running largely over Wi-Fi. While there have been a number of smaller, niche players (e.g., Republic Wireless, Scratch), it wasn’t until Google announced that they were getting into the game that it started to get serious. Sundar Pichai of Google gave an unsettling (at least for the traditional MNOs) keynote describing how Google’s MVNO would be primarily based on Wi-Fi, and when that was absent it would select the best, and cheapest, cellular coverage from a number of the big mobile providers.
5. The Connected Car Show — At times you could be forgiven for thinking that you had wandered into the auto show in Geneva or Detroit instead of MWC. There were cars everywhere. The industry sees these as “smart phones on wheels.’ Operators, such as AT&T were crowing about their big deal to connect all new Audis. Auto manufactures, such as Ford, were demonstrating the cool things that you could do with their connected cars. And for some reason, even exhibitors like Visa had cars at their booths. These were not just any cars – they were Porches, Audis, Mercedes, Maserati’s and every other high-end auto you can imagine.   Fancy cars are now the standard “eye candy” at big technology shows.
6. Virtual Reality — Samsung demonstrated a very cool technology for adapting one of their Galaxy Note 4’s or the new S6 into a virtual reality device. Not only does VR make games incredibly cool, but it has lots of applications to industry, enhancing solutions and business processes. HTC is working on a similar VR adaptor for its mobile devices. Several exhibitors were also using virtual reality devices to enhance the impact of their messaging. As virtual reality becomes integrated with cost-effective, and near ubiquitous smart phones, we can expect it to have a big impact on re-shaping many businesses – far beyond the gaming world.
7. Virtualization Reality — Virtualization and the cloud have finally hit the core mobile network elements. Not only will this make it less expensive for operators to build networks, but will provide them with much greater flexibility and responsiveness and allow the network to extend well beyond the boundaries of the traditional mobile network.   This is the year that the promise finally started to become a reality. Mobile operators, such as Telefonica, China Mobile and NTT DoCoMo, announced fully operational NFV (Network Functions Virtualization) deployments. AT&T reiterated its desire to move 75 percent of its network to a cloud architecture by 2020.
8. Making Wearables Wearable — There were 53 wearable devices on display at the show – 10 of which had their own SIMs to connect directly to the mobile network. The majority of these were smart watches and fitness trackers. The challenge, however, seems to be getting people besides device geeks to wear these. Huawei made a very interesting debut in this category with a high-end watch with a round-faced classic design. It looked like something that even James Bond might wear. And, although Apple was nowhere to be seen, rumors (and subsequent launch) of its new Apple Watch presented additional hope that wearables might in fact become wearable.
9. Mobile Monetization – An Industry on the Edge — At one time, service providers were the kings of the show. They are now just one of the participants in the massive and rapidly changing mobile industry. The decline in voice traffic, loss of messaging and competition to their data business from over the top providers and alternative access networks such as Wi-Fi, means that they desperately need to find new ways to make money. Most of the world’s major mobile operators now have their own large and prominently placed booths on the show floor. They are proudly displaying the latest business solutions, cloud services, gaming, IoT and other innovative mobile offerings that they have to sell. They are hoping that these new revenue-generating opportunities will move them beyond merely connectivity providers and deliver the next wave of monetization opportunities.
10. The Battle for the Great Indoors — Changes in devices, applications and social behavior are re-defining mobility from an on-the-go activity to a more nomadic activity, which takes place largely indoors. Traditional macro networks have a tough time penetrating buildings and reaching indoors. Hence operators are struggling to provide 5 bar coverage in homes, offices and public spaces. Traditional mobile technology vendors are now showcasing their small cell, Wi-Fi and DAS solutions as the answer to this challenge of lighting up the indoors. At one time, these solutions were relegated to the back corner, but they are increasingly becoming center stage as a solution to this new and growing problem. Not to mention, they offer an attractive new revenue opportunity for traditional macro network vendors.
11. Selfie Journalism – TV Production in the Palm of Your Hand – It was truly amazing to watch journalists reporting on the show holding their smartphones at arms-length in one hand and an attached professional-grade microphone in the other. In the past crews of cameramen and soundmen would have been needed to produce professional quality reporting from remote locations. The mobile revolution has created “selfie-journalism”, replacing these crews with one reporter, a smartphone and some clever software. The BBC did an interesting story on how they filmed, edited and produced their coverage of MWC entirely on mobile devices.
12. Mobile Payments – This May Be The Year? — The last point that I always seem to make on these reviews of MWC is on mobile payments. Once again, mobile payment solutions from banks, credit-card companies, MNOs and other providers were all competing to create a wallet-less world. However, unlike the promises of past shows, this may be the year that mobile payments finally take-off. With the launch of Apple Pay earlier this year and the big announcement that Samsung’s new S6 would incorporate technology from their recent acquisition of Loop (making mobile phones work with any existing magnetic card reader) we may finally start to leave our wallets at home.

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What do predictions about 5G mean for the Future of Mobility?

With the recent exponential growth of mobile devices, it is hard not to look ahead for the next big thing that will transform technology as we know it.

One current hot topic is 5G. While most industry experts agree it is a ways off, there are obvious reasons for excitement -- including how it will impact the future of mobility, the Internet of Things, and ultimately the Internet of Everything.

If 5G is all that it’s speculated to be, the mobility landscape will be in for a dramatic change , especially as businesses and organizations embrace all that 5G stands to offer such as ultra-fast network speeds and an increase in capacity.

However, while the industry grapples with understanding “just what is 5G” many experts, such as Peter Jarich, Vice President of Current Analysis Consumer and Infrastructure services, declares that it is “more relevant today than you might think” as 5G will introduce new network architectures. In addition, many of the technologies being developed today will be a part of the longer-term implementation of 5G.

Recently, I participated in a new Future of Mobility podcast with Peter Jarich to discuss what IT and business leaders can do today to prepare for the evolution of the 5^th generation of mobility and speculate on long-term implications. You can listen to the full recording here.

In this post, I’ll share some of those key insights from my discussion with Peter and discuss why 5G will revolutionize how we define mobility.

Let’s start at the beginning. What’s all the hype with 5G?

Since we are in the technology industry, it’s pretty standard to hype emerging solutions and ideas. However, the jump from 4G to 5G will be similar to the evolution of 2G to 3G, in that it will enable a broad range of new capabilities through lower costs and faster speeds.

We see a lot of buzz words surrounding 5G such “infinite capacity” and “virtualization of the network,” but really, it’s not just about how wireless technologies can be applied to what people are doing, but also how we connect everything to the network in a way to best meet our needs.

In terms of mobility, 5G is an enabler of a new world.

Gartner often refers to a Nexus of Forces – the convergence of four major tech trends: social interaction, mobility, cloud, and information – as a means of changing our business landscape. Today, we are seeing this convergence first hand. And it needs a network to support it. For example, the influx of mobile devices and applications are measuring heartbeats and monitoring brake pads on trains. This capability is being combined with an influx of data – available in real-time through the cloud.

From a network technology standpoint, 5G will continue to connect these capabilities.  It’s hard to predict exactly how all these pieces will come together, however 5G will be able to provide relevant networking – both over licensed and unlicensed spectrums – independent of people managing that process. With this in mind, 5G will be essential to bringing together people, process, data and things in an Internet of Everything world.

So, what can I do today to prepare for 5G?

I agree with Peter Jarich when he said, “You don’t need to wait until 5G arrives to figure out what you can do with it.”

If you’re a retailer, what does this mean?  How do you start running your business differently?  How do you start using mobility to engage with the customers that come in to your store like any e-commerce experience?

If you are a mobile operator, what does 5G mean for your business? In this new 5G world built on heterogeneous networks, how will your business need to evolve to stay competitive?

Regardless of your industry, the future of mobility – and next generation networks – will require every IT and business leader to redefine, reengineer and recreate business models based on the an infrastructure that is a lot more powerful and more pervasive than it is now.  5G isn’t here yet – but it is never too early to prepare and begin building a strategy.

Listen to the podcast: What do predictions about 5G mean for the Future of Mobility? featuring Cisco’s Stuart Taylor and Peter Jarich, Current Analysis.