As I described in earlier articles, I believe that there are
Eight
Core Industry Disruptors that are driving key tipping points – The
Mobile Seesaw – that are ultimately redefining the mobile ecosystem. These tipping points, or key strategic
questions, serve as a useful framework for developing scenarios for the
potential future of the mobile industry.
The creation of industry scenarios
is a valuable means to comprehend and envisage a multitude of uncertain and
interconnected factors in a tangible and actionable way. These scenarios paint a picture of plausible
future worlds in five years time.
While there are several
plausible future scenarios, I believe that there are two key scenarios that are
both more likely to transpire, and are the most informative in identifying key business choices and helping in developing
winning strategies for future success.
Mobile
Segments – Back to the Future
This is a world not that dissimilar to today, or to the
industry over the past five years or so. Mobile 2.5 or Mobile 3.0? Industry consolidation continues with large players
dominate in each segment of the value chain.
The large players focus on their core strengths in their respective
segments of the value chain, seldom venturing into other parts of the ecosystem. The traditional application to device to
connectivity model continues, although it is dominated by 3 largely independent
operating platforms. The mobile
operators retreat back to largely providing connectivity and leaving other aspects
of the customer experience to be delivered by the dominate players in the other
relevant parts of the value chain. This détente,
or coopetition, amongst all of the players means that they all seek way to
create extra value by using their core strengths and capabilities (e.g.,
network, channels, advertising) to augment other offers. Most of the industry innovation in this
scenario occurs in the start-ups; although, successful ones are quickly gobbled
up by the behemoths in the consolidating industry seeking innovation.
The key attributes of the tipping point continuum that
characterize the Mobile Segments
scenario are:
1.
Applications
– applications resident on the device purchased through a traditional app store
2.
Mobile Networks
– traditional mobile, licensed spectrum networks rule and continue to explode;
alternative networks largely remain for niche uses
3.
Device
Centric – largely independent, and non-interoperable devices, based on 3
independent operating platforms, continue to be subsidized by MNOs
4.
Traffic
Growth – operators cope with continued explosive growth by lowering network
costs and improving efficiencies, as they focus primarily on being connectivity
providers
5.
Mobile
Operators – Core mobile services (e.g., voice, SMS, email) will continue to
be largely delivered by the MNOs
Mobile Explosion
– A World Without Wires
This is a world where everything is wireless. Aside from big pipes to big TVs and fixed
devices, everything else is connected over a wireless network. Access
type doesn’t matter, as the end user is completely unaware as to which of the
multiple, inter-related, licensed and unlicensed, networks he is using to connect
his device to the Internet. Although
three large platform ecosystems still dominated, there is good interoperability
between devices, networks and applications or services. Much of this interoperability is driven by
mobile cloud. The most compelling mobile
services are delivered through the mobile cloud; finally delivering on the long
awaited promise of services delivered anywhere, anytime and on any device. Competition increases within, and across
parts of the mobile value chain, as the number of networks increases, platforms
and devices become interoperable and services are easily delivered at scale
through the mobile cloud. The lines
between the segments in the value chain begin to blur as each of the players
both compete and seek ways to partner or collaborate with others to help to
enhance and differentiate their offering.
Once arch rivals, mobile operators and OTTs (over-the tops), seek collaborative
opportunities to leverage their core capabilities to create new value for
themselves.
The key attributes of the tipping point continuum that
characterize the Mobile Explosion scenario
are:
1.
Mobile
Cloud – while applications will not completely disappear, innovative and
integrative services will largely be delivered through the mobile cloud
2.
Mixed
Networks – a HetNet (heterogeneous network) of licensed and unlicensed access
will provide the most cost efficient and effective network at time of need
3.
Ecosystems
– inter-operative ecosystems will allow people to use what they want, on
whatever network, without any control from the mobile operators
4.
Profitability
– players will seek new sources of value
and revenue enhancement strategies as the scope of competition increases
5.
Over-the-Tops – With multiple networks and platforms available , OTTs find new ways
to connect with their customers; although they do value collaboration with MNOs
for competitive differentiation
