Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Is the Internet of Things the New Dot-Com Era?

Fifteen to twenty years ago we were in the middle of another frothy, technology-hyped revolution -- the Dot-Com era.  Mass adoption of the Internet promised radical changes in business and our everyday life and a new social and economic Utopia.  In those halcyon days, stock prices were on a tear, venture capital money flowed like water, and countless start-ups greedily chased the pot of gold.  Could the most recent technology revolution, the Internet of Things, be another Dot-Com experience?

Like the Dot-Com revolution the Internet of Things is the culmination of radical advances in four core technology pillars: 1) Connectivity (dial-up modems of yesteryear vs. mobile data and high-speed broadband today); 2) Data (the browser vs. big data and analytics); 3) Cloud (CompuServe and AOL vs. cloud storage and computing); and 4) Things (PC computer vs. smart phones, sensors and other machines).  Like the Dot-Com era, technology visionaries and strategists could see that the perfect storm of the disruption in these core technology pillars would herald the dawn of a new revolution in how business was done and society operates.  While everyone could see this new horizon and the benefits that it would bring, no one was really sure of how to get there or where the money would come from.

Businesses saw the value when they connected their businesses and unleashed the value of the Internet.  Customers and employees could now serve themselves, businesses processes were re-designed for a connected world and businesses found new online products and services to offer.  But, it was not a direct path.  Some companies immediately embraced the Dot-Com world, many had false starts and many others took a long time to jump on, or the revolution passed them by completely.  The technology vendors and providers faced similar challenges adapting to the Dot-Com era.  For some, the frothy bubble offered huge new markets.  However, after selling the initial vision and promise the sale became much more complicated and competition started to commoditize products and erode margins.  Customers eventually didn’t just want the technology; they wanted to know the business case, what to do with it, and how to re-design their business to capture the promised new value.

Like all technology revolutions, the path was not a straight line.  We had sock puppets and business models based on the illusive quest for eye-balls, and outrageous promises of new businesses and social upheavals.  But, in the end we got there.  No one today would argue that the Internet has not added immeasurable value to the world and changed our lives forever.  The Internet of Things is similar to where we were two decades ago, at the start of the Dot-Com era.

There are some huge estimates of the value that will be created by the Internet of Things.  While some of these optimistic values may never be realized, like at the dawn of the Dot-Com era, we know that IoT will not only add tremendous value, but will fundamentally change businesses, the economy and ultimately society.  We are already witnessing companies capturing significant new benefits from implementing IoE in their businesses.  For example, GE is using data from sensors in its jet engines to do proactive maintenance, Barcelona is becoming a smart city to save costs and improve the quality of life for its citizens, and many utilities are installing smart meters to remove meter reading costs and better manage local energy usage.  But, we are still very much in the early days of the IoE revolution with many companies knowing that they need to do something but not sure, what or how.  A recent study by Harvard Business Review and Verizon found that less than ten percent of enterprises had deployed IoE initiatives.  And, of that small minority only 56 percent of those had an IoT strategy.  What does that say for the 90 percent of companies who have yet to implement IoT initiatives?  And, like the Dot-Com days the technology vendors and providers have yet to figure out how they will make money.  Nor, is it clear who will win and who will lose in this new technology provider arms-race.
The Dot-Com experience can serve as a useful reference model for how the Internet of Things revolution may unfold.  There is little doubt that the promise of IoT will be realized, and more.  But, we need to heed some of the key lessons of the Dot-Com era to make sure that businesses and vendors alike share those promised benefits:
  1. Ensure that you have a clear and compelling monetization model and a well-developed business case in place for any IoE initiative.
  2. Focus on the use case and how the technology supports it, rather than the other way around.
  3. Recognize that people are a critical component to any successful implementation and ensure that change management is a key component of any program.
  4. Re-design the business (processes, organization and business models) around the IoT initiatives to achieve the promised value.
  5. Technology vendors and providers need to focus on open technologies, flexibility, and new business models and financial arrangements.  They also need to help their customers identify and realize the potential business benefits through consultative selling and services.


Monday, January 5, 2015

10 Predictions for the Future of Wi-Fi and Mobility

The close of every year brings startling headlines that herald the continued meteoric rise of mobility.  This past year was no exception.  The 2014 announcement that there are now more mobile subscribers than inhabitants on the planet exemplified the mobile zeitgeist and its importance in our daily lives. 

But, the big mobile news in 2014 was around Wi-Fi.  Wi-Fi continues to blanket the world, with iPass estimating that the number of public hotspots will increase almost 8-fold over the next four years to cover 1 out of every 20 people on the planet.  And, Wi-Fi is becoming more like the mobile cellular experience.  The seamless authentication and experience promised by Hotspot 2.0 is now available, with Time Warner and others announcing last year that they would roll it out across their entire Wi-Fi networks. And, we can now roam to other international Wi-Fi networks, like we do on cellular, with Comcast and Liberty Global, and other providers, announcing global roaming agreements.  And, 2014 saw mobile operators beginning to embrace Wi-Fi in a big way.  T-Mobile USA began shipping wireless routers to provide five bars coverage at home by allowing customers to make calls over Wi-Fi instead of the mobile network.   

Of all the 2014 Wi-Fi activities, perhaps the biggest event was Apple’s announcement that the new iPhone 6 would support Wi-Fi calling (Voice over Wi-Fi).  This technology bombshell indicated that Wi-Fi had truly arrived and should now be considered a true partner and complement to traditional cellular. 

What does 2015, and beyond, have in store for Wi-Fi and mobility?  The following are my ten predictions of what we have to look forward to: 

1.    Wi-Fi will be “almost everywhere” – While we may not find it on mountain tops, in remote locations or along highways, Wi-Fi will be in most places where we spend our lives – homes, schools, work, shopping malls, hospitals, sports facilities, etc. 

2.    Providing Wi-Fi will be a “cost of doing business” – Like providing lighting and heating, customers of retailers, restaurants, sports venues and all other customer-facing organizations will expect Wi-Fi to “just be there”. 

3.    Consumers will expect Wi-Fi to be free, or almost free – The bar has largely been set – with the exception of some “expense account” venues like hotels, customers will expect to have Wi-Fi included as part of the overall service. 

4.    Wi-Fi will become an important part of indoor mobile coverage – As the mobile battle moves indoors, Wi-Fi and Wi-Fi calling will be important ways for mobile operators to enhance their indoor coverage. 

5.    Wi-Fi will be a key access technology for Internet of Things enablement – Due to cost, coverage and bandwidth challenges of mobile cellular, Wi-Fi will be the key connectivity technology for home, business and public IoT deployments. 

6.    Public Wi-Fi will get better – With growing customer demand and expectations, public hot spots will need to upgrade their infrastructure to move beyond the initial “trial” phase of many public deployments. 

7.    Service Providers will be the major builders and operators of Wi-Fi networks – Given the growing complexity and importance of their Wi-Fi networks, many business will want to outsource the deployment and operations to a service provider as a managed service; concurrently allowing SPs to expand their growing Wi-Fi networks. 

8.    Wi-Fi wholesale and roaming agreements – We will see more domestic and globally roaming agreements to create a mobile-like experience.  Wi-Fi network operators will wholesale network capacity, and site locations for licensed small cells, to mobile operators to help them to extend their networks. 

9.    New Wi-Fi Max models – Wi-Fi centric mobile offerings, with cellular fallback, will expand beyond niche providers, such as Scratch Wireless and Republic, to more mainstream landline and cable service providers as their core mobile offering. 

10. “Next Generation Wi-Fi Monetization” – With public Wi-Fi becoming essentially free, businesses will look to new monetization models, like advertising, data analytics and advanced location-based services, to recover Wi-Fi network costs.

Read on Cisco.com